Is the Real Estate Market Peaking?

If you have been around since the market crash in 2007, you may be comparing today’s market activity to yesteryear and wondering if our market is peaking again? Well, let’s look at what’s going on in today’s market.

Western Prince William County’s resale home inventories continue to decrease making this a Seller’s market in most price ranges. The median listing price is pushing higher. The median Days on Market is less than one month.

As of February 1st we’ve seen a significant rise in median listing price from $500,000 on September 1st to $550,000 today. Actual sales prices are rising.  The market below $650,000 is very competitive for buyers and some home sellers are receiving multiple offers, some with waived contingencies. Especially hot is the below $500,000 price range. Homes sell for close to list price and move to pending in around 33 days. Hot Homes can sell for around list price, or more, and go under contract in less than a week on the market.


Year Over Year Comparisons

The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® reports on January 2020 home sales activity for Fairfax and Arlington counties, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church and the towns of Vienna, Herndon, and Clifton.

A total of 1,065 homes sold in January 2020, a 5.5% decrease below January 2019 home sales of 1,127 according to data from Bright Multiple Listing Service.

Active listings decreased this month compared with 2019. Listings were down about 15.5% below last year, with 1,479 active listings in January, compared with 1,750 homes available in January 2019. The average days on market (DOM) for homes in January 2020 was 33 days, a decrease of 25% compared to the 44 DOM for homes in January 2019.

The average home sale price rose by 13.72% compared with last January, to $642,565. The January 2019 average sale price was $565,032.

The median sold price of homes this January, which was $520,000, rose by 5.05% percent compared to the median price of $495,000 in January 2019.

As the statistics show, inventories of homes for sale were fewer this year by over 15% and total homes sold off over last year by 5.5%. Homes sold faster this past January than a year ago by an average of 11 days. Moreover, sale prices were almost 14% higher than January 2019.

When analyzed as a whole, these facts indicate that the market is quite strong since homes sold faster, for more money, and in less time.

Many prognosticators thought prices would be leveling off this past year but the Northern Virginia market has actually risen a significant amount, a wonderful sign for market health. Anchored by Washington, our market is more or less immune from the vicissitudes of other areas that are dependent on a one or two industry economy such as the Tech Sector. Because this is an election year, I see nothing but positive signs for the balance of 2020.

In the midst of all this good news, there is a terrible health threat looming from Asia. Of course, we are all hoping and praying for medicine to develop a cure and a vaccine for Coronavirus (COVID-19), but things as of this writing are still quite tentative. The reluctance of China to be forthcoming with truthful statistics hampers our prognosis, but there is a macabre type of “freakonomics” at work. The term was invented by University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt and refers to unimagined consequences of societal events. It seems as the world worries about business and economic upheavals caused by quarantines and work stoppages in Asia, vast amount of money flows into our economy by way of foreign nations buying U.S. Treasuries, Bonds, and other debt instruments. America is seen as a safe, secure harbor for investment until the crisis passes or is averted. Further, with the Treasury garnering an unexpected influx of cash, the Federal Reserve Board keeps discount interest rates low which ultimately has a good effect on maintaining our historically low mortgage interest rates. By no means is this a reason to buy or sell your home, but it is a reality that adds to our decisions.

As for my opinion, as to whether our local market is doomed for a Year 2007 repeat, my answer is “NO”.  I do not believe we are yet experiencing the tip of the market. This market has more room to run!


Please give us a call, the Ashley Leigh Team 703-485-4663, and we’ll be delighted to discuss your particular wants and needs in this wonderful Spring Selling Season. Right now is the perfect time to get started with our exhaustive market analysis of your home and to develop a strategy, timeline, and staging plan to assure you the most satisfying transaction of your life!

Sources: The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® and other commercial reporting websites.

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